The Culture: You Will Witness Conventional Play's Collapse

Will the Cargo Cult of Conventional Play collapse between the Return to the Clubhouse and SOBS' Big Move?

Yes.

What people are showing by their own words is that they do not comprehend the How and Why yet. For that we're returning to Lag Time and Network Effects to explain.

Network Effects

I've been about this for years. Time for the go-to video explanation.

The only way that Tabletop Adventure Games get their value is through Network Effects.

It is because of Network Effects that people who say stupid things like "This doesn't bother me" or "I'll just use (Brand-alike)" demonstrate that they do not get the issue.

Lag Time

This is simple. There is a difference in time between when an event happens and the impact or consequence of that event hits someone at a distance from that event. This is easily demonstrated by dropping a pebble into a pool of still water; the ripples that radiate out from the point of impact hit at (fractions of) a second or so from the point of impact- you see this if there is something else in the water that gets hit by the ripples.

Combination

SOBS makes it Big Move and pulls out of Tabletop, taking 80% or more of the current players in the hobby with it. What follows on from that event?

SOBS has already shown that it wants to vertically integrate its business model; you go to Next Edition's landing page, log into the Walled Garden, and both buy and play entirely within that artificial ecosystem- much like using Steam, where you both buy and play. This removes physical retail and virtual retail from the equation; you soon won't find new products on Amazon or your local stores. Within 5-10 years, you won't find used products either save for estate sales or similar total library purges.

The stores will either stop dealing in Tabletop Adventure Games or close entirely. Either decision removes your ability to meet others, recruit players, and play outside of a private residence. As a consequence, the ability to retain existing players becomes harder and attrition of players becomes more damaging; within a few years, people will complain about the inability to find people to play with in-person- prospects will refuse because the Walled Garden model is superior (for them) in all respects.

Now we're seeing how a medium shift for a massive User Network, holding up an entire hobby sector, will devastate an entire scene- just not right away, not all at once, and not at all evenly. Things that people who play games far removed from the D&D Realm have long coped with will become normal for the left-behind cohort too, and that means that all these third-party publishers who either make support products or use Current/Next Edition as a point of contrast for their alternatives will both be up a shit-creek without a paddle as neither group has ever done a fraction of the marketing that SOBS has done- or will.

As stores close, revenue for publishers falls and then they start shutting down in turn; some will last longer than others, but only those few able to follow SOBS' example or be humble enough to change to a self-funding hobbyist operation will still be around in 10-15 years. (That is, if they're not run by Boomers who shut it down when they retire or cash out and head off into the sunset.) All media publicity focuses only on SOBS and its new, wildly successful, Next Edition that "solves all the problems with RPGs" by making them into something they are not so the Normies (and with them the Casuals and Tourists) go there and refuse to go anywhere else. They will say, sincerely, "I only play Real D&D" while shaking their iPhone 42 with the Walled Garden app open at you when they reject you.

Online persists in this doomed world a while longer, but with publishers closing up (one way or another) and product becoming unavailable to consume and the Next Edition nailing everything that most Conventional Play users actually want, within 15 years at most (and likely faster given how quick things turn now) you won't have anyone to play with or anywhere to buy what you want to consume.

But what about that Clubhouse?

That's where you heard that there was still gaming to be had, but the way play goes there somehow alienates you. This isn't a handful of guys doing things together. This is a full-on wargame, where people get ganked on a regular basis, and they love it. Players control dragons and their hoards, vast interstellar empires that throw around giant robots like toys, and then out of nowhere it's a handful of guys and their gang out doing some skirmishing or looting or something that looks like the Conventional Play that you know but they're talking about old books from a century or two ago or something. Oh, and there's talk of some English guy coming to town this weekend and he's keen to play 40K. Or maybe he's Norwegian, but the happy vibe creeps you out.

Oh, and you've no idea who this Leigh Brackett is and why she's important while Marion Zimmer Bradley might as well be the Devil, or why they love that Tarzan guy and how he compares to some dude you've never heard of but apparently was all the rage a century ago. It feels weird, so you leave before they throw you out and stop at the store to pick up some soup for dinner.

And it is there, in the soup aisle, that you get that dreaded text: "Hey. Can't play anymore. Guys and I got a new job overseas. Sorry."

And that's it- you're done. The last of your group is gone, and there's no one left for you, Cargo Cultist.

But hey, at least there's always Globe of Gankcraft. (Oh wait.)

Closing Remarks

Collapse of a scene and collapse of a civilization is the same in that it is something that isn't happening until it all happens at once, unless you're paying attention. Then you see the event coming and prepare to deal with the consequences. I did that by returning underground (and no, you can't come in); the Real Hobby is an Occult Practice for good reasons, so this is no tragedy to me.

SOBS' Big Move is another preparation for an event that that big corporation sees coming, which is the Non-Viability of Commercial Tabletop. SOBS doing this is just ripping off a bandaid and getting the pain over with on its terms.

If you are one of those blithely thinking that Nothing Ever Happens, then you're also the sort that puts your crypto on an exchange and wonders why it got stolen. Collapses like this happens because the Network Effects driving it are taken away, ripping out the pillars propping it all up with no replacements on hand, so it all falls apart through a cascade of function failures over time.

You're going to see it all happen soon. What are you going to do about it? Time is running out. Tick. Tock.