Fellow Hobbyists, it is time to add to your knowledge.
The Lindy Effect is a manifestation of the Network Effect when talking about anything that relies on the latter for its value.
The medium of multiplayer tabletop games is a Network Effect medium inherently. It is no surprise that the biggest names are also the ones with the largest Network Effect. The same is true of online multiplayer games, especially MMORPGs and small-group adventure games like Monster Hunter.
You have to screw up so badly, for so long, to make the opening required to allow someone to usurp your position and become the dominant Network property- and no, Wizards of the Coast (or Games Workshop, for that matter) isn't there yet. Even lesser counterparts, with their own management issues, have yet to be dethroned; all it takes is one Good Enough release and all is forgiven.
This is one of the reasons that Death Cultists flock to those properties; they are resilient against the damage done by such in converging them into propaganda fronts to push the poz- resilient, but not impervious or immune.
It's also one of the things that keeps the winners winning. It's not just First Mover or massive marketing; it's seeing it in old movies, talked about casually, finding copies at Grandpa's place on the shelf, or being the dominant title or brand longer than your grandparents have lived (Smith & Wesson's Model 10 revolver, the classic police sidearm; still good over a century later, or the Winchester 1873- the classic lever-action carbine).
That's why D&D endures, while (Your Alternative) does not. D&D Is Lindy.
"You have to screw up so badly, for so long, to make the opening required to allow someone to usurp your position and become the dominant Network property- and no, Wizards of the Coast (or Games Workshop, for that matter) isn't there yet."
ReplyDeleteCorrect WotC is not there yet. But the fact that they are a converged corp should not be discounted here. It is a question of time...
It took Dr.Who Ten Years to go from its ratings high to the fem Dr. that finally turned their core audience away. The only reason the ghey Dr. is still clinging to life is due to converged mega corps not wanting to concede defeat for what was once a 'prestige' brand. But as far as the core fanbase is concerned; Dr. WHO is dead.
WotC only had their fad bubble popped this year. We have at least ten years to see how far converged WotC will drive the D&D brand down. This gives time for an alternative to make themselves known. But even as D&D kills its fanbase, it will take decades for an alternative to reach a similar market saturation.
And then there is always the chance someone that is not converged gets a hold of D&D, and releases a new edition where all is forgiven...