The Business: Games, Guns, & Grokking It (Network Effects)

Recently, the patents that the Glock corporation had on the Generation 3 iteration of its eponymous handgun design expired. This immediately lead to an explosion, still ongoing, of clones of the Gen 3 Glock. Palmetto State Armory has the Dagger. The Turks got into the act thereafter, and just this past week (in time for the 2025 SHOT Show in Las Vegas next month) Ruger announced its own clone in collaboration with Aftermarket Parts King, Magpul.

As I said the other day, "Does it take Glock magazines?" is a tell of dominance in a market niche for a reason. Glock's handgun design is so dominant, and so widely supported, that it set the standard for what a semi-automatic handgun should be; "I gots me a Glock" is said in the same way (and by the same people) that use "Coke" to mean any soft drink and clueless Boomers say "Nintendo" to mean any home videogame console.

While there are plenty of handguns out there, from many manufacturers, some of which are well-known and some of which are clearly superior, none of them have ever displaced the Glock. All they did was advertise for it instead.

Yes, including legacy (pre-Glock) models. Yes, Boomer, that includes Muh Two World Wars and Muh Gun That Won The West.

We saw the same thing happen when the patents on the Armalite-15 Rifle expired and now everyone and their uncle shleps an AR-15 or parts therefore; exact same phenomenon is at work, for the same reasons. Palmetto State bundles their clones together into a very good package.

What happened 25 years ago in tabletop gaming?

"Does it take Glock magazines?", in gaming terms, is "Does it play like D&D?" and in the year 2000 the same effect as letting patents expire happened to D&D.

The result was the same: an explosion of clones and near-alikes, meant to plug into the stupidly-vast aftermarket accessories made for the dominant actor in the market. Several of them are still around, and some no longer in print are still in demand anyway (e.g. Mongoose's Conan game), while many are like stupid trash-tier pew-pews that deserve to be forgotten because they sucked ass.

This was the first clear manifestation that what Ryan Dancey argued when presenting the Open Gaming License and the d20 System Trademark License was correct: the gaming market, like the telephone market, is a market niche whose value is derived entirely from establishing and maintaining the largest network of users- and that means that D&D Is The Only Game That Matters. (Sorry Dark Eye and Dragon Warriors fans.)

The only party that could fuck this up was whomever owned D&D; so long as management wasn't pants-on-head retarded, owning D&D is as close to guaranteed success as it gets.

Previously that was TSR. Currently (and for 25 years now) it's Wizards of the Coast. Both owners have done just that more than once, each, and it has been due to management being pants-on-head retarded while eating glue in Costco-sized quantities.

Each time turned out badly for everyone in the long run despite short-term benefits and effects because none of the would-be competitors are good enough at business to figure out how to usurp D&D and become The Only Game That Matters.

Meanwhile, more and more accrued defects in the game--in the hobby--have allowed The Only Competition That Matters (i.e. competing networks, meaning Vidya) to do exactly what I've said you have to do to beat D&D: find out what The Most Valued Customers want, but D&D's owners aren't giving to them, make it and sell it to them. That's how, and why, Vidya has eaten Tabletop's lunch for decades now.

That is also why Wizards of the Coast's management wants to quit Tabletop for Vidya: Vidya has proven itself to be the better medium for the business that WOTC (and Vidya) offers to the target audience (i.e. it's superior for Conventional Play across the board).

All you "competitors" thinking that you still have a place in this market once The Only Publisher That Matters leaves are going to find out when the user network you depend upon for your business and your livelihood ejects you and all those customers that you think are loyal to you and not to the dominant actor--to that Brand--aren't and shiv you in the ribs without a second thought.

Just like all the folks now making Glock clones are bowing to the reality that Gunnies Want Glocks, you're going to bow to the reality that Gamers Want D&D or you won't be here much longer.

That's how Network Effects work for those unwilling or unable--and that's you, all of you--to beat the Master to become the Master. You will serve or you will die, and as you choke on your pride about how this goes down I'll be smugfacing over here.

Meanwhile, I'm building the alternative to your failing commercial operations because you guys are all fucked and I want the hobby to live despite you.