The Business: Confirmed That WOW Is To MMOs What D&D Is To Tabletop

I have stated for years that Official Edition competes with WOW, not with any other Tabletop product.

I stated that this is because WOW and D&D are the same thing in different media, and following Preach's video about how Blizzard copied Wizards' business model homework we now have this confirming it.

That's right, this is the Top Five:

1. World of Warcraft (Retail)
2. Final Fantasy XIV
3. World of Warcraft (Classic Expansion)
4. World of Warcraft (Season of Discovery)
5. World of Warcraft (Classic Anniversary)

That doesn't include just plain Classic Era. That's right, four versions of Classic. It also doesn't include the dozen or so private servers either, which would be equavalent to the OSR Retroclone movement.

Flat-out, WOW dominates the MMORPG business in ways that only those familiar with how D&D dominates Tabletop can comprehend. In both cases, their Network Effects are so strong that nothing short of a catastrophic Out Of Context event from outside the entertainment media sphere entirely--like a nuclear war--can do anything to damage it. Blizzard screwed up a few times, only to come back stronger every time. WOTC's screwed up more than once, only to come back stronger also. That Josh Strife Hayes video I linked to previously explains all of that, and it applies to both Tabletop and MMOs because what drives both media is the same thing.

This is why, despite the Sigil thing blowing up, I don't see this changing anything. There is no one in Tabletop able to capitalize on this like Paizo was for the 4e screwup, so this will pass with WOTC still on top and as soon as they gin up something Good Enough (not good, nevermind great, just Good Enough) for the disappointed to be mollified all sins will be forgiven (as we saw with D&D5e's release) and it will be as if nothing happened once more.

Like I said previously, I've seen this dance before. There's been no changes to the pattern; merely variations on trappings, and that is nowhere near enough to dethrone a king even if there were someone willing and able to usurp him and there is not, and at this point there never shall be.

The same now applies to Blizzard. Square Enix wasted their opportunity to do so when they had the chance (because man was Shadowlands a major mistake) but SE hesitated and Yoshi-P doesn't have the killer instinct required to play the Apprentice to Blizzard's Master. What could have happened didn't, and everything sucks harder for that failure to act.

The Colony Drop has come to Tabletop. Don't think MMOs are immune; it's just going to take longer, and you'll see the same collapse pattern appear (those on the fringes die first, with WOW at the center and likely to survive).