Saturday, February 1, 2025

The Business: The Big Move And The Usurpation Of The Network

Let's look at this for a moment.

This is only possible due to being the holder of the dominant User Network in the hobby.

That possession is not as iron-clad as it seems. Wizards of the Coast relies on legal presumptions and precedent, but Network Effects are driven by social mores as they are by technical utility.

The reason that TSR before 2000, and WOTC since, has gotten away with all their changes is because they were not only the sole source of the Network's core product, but also the (for all intents and purposes) sole source of media regarding it.

Since 2000, those advantages wore away. The Open Game License killed the monopoly on the core product itself. The Internet killed the monopoly on the discourse. This severely dilluted the control over the Network.

Until the last few years, that was not considered a threat because the majority of players didn't pay much attention to anything that didn't get shoved into their faces and smeared itself upon them. What WOTC only recently came to recognize by their deeds is that Not All Nodes In The Network Are Equal, and the consequence of this recognition is that if the most valuable nodes--users--in the Network are sufficiently displeased they become inclined to defect. If enough of those Most Valuable Users defect to a viable alternative, and that alternative otherwise satisfies the wants and needs of the User Network, the alternative can usurp control of the Network.

This is how World of Warcraft usurped EverQuest.

What has WOTC done?

  • Attempted to rugpull third parties via messing with the Open Game License. (Someone failed to brief the suits as to why this exists.)
  • Attempted to suborn key influencers into being WOTC shills. (Seize control of the discourse.)
  • Not even try to fix long-standing problems with the core product justifying the existence of the Network, thus not serving the Most Valuable Users.
  • Use social engineering to gaslight the disserved users back into compliance (not working).
  • Let slip that the C-Suite do not get that Brand and Network are not the same thing (or they wouldn't be doing all this dumb shit).
  • Let slip that C-Suite is slapping the Brand on things not even associated with the core product or activity of the Network (branded slot machines, for example).
  • Still on that Big Move

Nerdcognito has a 4D Chess take on this.

Nerd's take is that the Big Move not only involves turning the core product into an always-online, all-digital Live Service business model but also involves a wholesale Great Replacement of the users in the Network. The idea is that WOTC is deliberately purging the existing Users as a dead-end legacy audience. They want an all-new audience that doesn't blink an eye at the abuses of this new business model--the Gatcha model, the Whaling model, the Casino model--which squares with the recent revelation that WOTC doesn't have any competition in Tabletop but instead sees it in competetion with Roblox and Fortnite.

That's all very interesting.

It offers a rare opportunity: the seizure and usurpation of a User Network by a non-commercial entity.

We all know that, due to Network Effects, that only D&D matters and thus only D&D competes with D&D. We have all the editions out there now, but only one is turnkey-ready as well as a full and complete game just with its rules manuals: AD&D1e.

The means to keep the manuals available in perpetuity, adapting the means that dissident publishers created to circumvent political censorship, are known to me and others who aren't myopic about Tabletop. We can just do things and keep the real games available in perpetuity, ensuring that the real hobby only grows in strength and related people only have more to contribute: we are the Most Valuable Users. We can, and will, usurp the Network.

We don't need another corpo. All we need is the game.

Posted by at

1 comment:

  1. Wes350February 1, 2025 at 3:31 PM

    Nobody is going back to AD&D in meaningful enough numbers to usurp or even make a ripple in the 5e User Network. That's just silly.

    You need to have at least a nominal commercial entity in place to be able to shove the Alternative under the user networks nose like Baizuo did with PF1.
    But the conditions that created PF1 are different now. Rather than commit 4e style seppuku, WotC has decided to embrace the Death by a Thousand Cuts model of self-immolation.

    But like the 4e debacle, any game that wants to usurp the network must be "D&D" to that network. 5e is D&D to that network. i.e. The game must appear "5e" at first glance...
    If Macris were to ACKSify 5e, this could be done while getting the same scope of play as AD&D. (But he would need backing)

    Back to 4D chess and the 'Big-Move': WotC has an absolutely horrible vidya track record. Everything they've done in the past few years, from the Film to their video games has literally Bombed. Critical role got a "D&D" animated series done before WotC...

    We must remember they are a fully Converged corporation. They are incompetent, and demonstrably incapable of performing their core function.

    Being skeptical of their ability to execute "the Big Move" is not a controversial or outlandish position to take.

    The current issue is that there is no viable 'apprentice' currently in place of sufficient visibility to move in if WotC fails to stick the landing. PF2 is too complex, Baizuo went the wrong design direction. C&C is too small, and the game isn't good enough. ACKS is good enough, but too small and not '5e' enough. The other 5e clones are being done by people just as woke as WotC...

    So the current situation is chaotic and fluid. I personally think WotC will bomb it's VTT play, and the 5e bubble will finally pop good and proper. How that will play out in the end, we will start to see in the next 4-5 years...

    ReplyDelete

Anonymous comments are banned. Pick a name, and "Unknown" (et. al.) doesn't count.

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)