The Business: Ashes of Creation's Implosion Shows Network Effects In Action

Over the weekend, Ashes of Creation--the long-developing ArcheAge style MMORPG--collapsed. Lots of videos dropped about it, but only Josh's matters.

This will start unraveling over the rest of this week and information gets checked and either confirmed or denied.

From what's been revealed: Private Equity bought the studio, goat-fucked the former owner and his team, fired everyone in the US, and will relocate to India (because that's what "overseas" means) to do whatever with it (what "finish" means). In practice, this is dead; divest--economically, socially, emotionally--now.

The Steam release was a surprise for the team; they were not told until the last minute. That's the red flag for insiders.

AoC is Kill.

Network Effects spare no one. This is all due to two things: (a) having to compete with World of Warcraft, and (b) developing a game contrary to the Revealed Preferences of the MMORPG Player Network.

AoC did not compete with WOW of 2004. AoC has to compete with WOW as it is here and now. That's a very big wall to climb, and AoC could not climb it. No Kickstarter game, nor any more conventional alternative (e.g. New World, Throne & Liberty), can compete with World of Warcraft now. It has attained the same position in MMORPGs that Dungeons & Dragons has in Tabletop, Magic: The Gathering has in CCGs, and Warhammer in wargaming. These properties reached a point of absolute, utter and PERMANENT dominance in their niches where competition from without their Network Effect is no longer possible AT ALL.

Instead, each of these are now Eternal Kings of their niches such that they are the Kleenex or Xerox of that space. They do not compete with others within their niche; they compete with comparables in other niches (i.e. all of them compete with Fortnite, Roblox, etc.). They have a Containment Option, an Also-Ran to act as Controlled Opposition that keeps players who need a break within the network by shunting them into a Designated Containment Zone.

(Periodic wiping included, though that tends to run on Sith Succession Principles.)

The MMO scene really has room for THREE: WOW (which has its own sub-retention structures within its model), FF14 (faltering hard at the moment; they screwed up bad with Dawntrail thanks to Death Cult sabotage), and Guild Wars 2. Tabletop really only has one--D&D--and only the various clones (including Palladium) is as close as it gets to a Containment Option; all other niches are so small compared to Fantastic Adventure that even the D&D analogs are only known if they have videogame adaptations of note. The lawsuit over Magic will not kill Magic as the King of CCGs- too many users exist now and there is no alternative.

There is no way to compete and win from without. There is also no way to compete and win from a lesser position. You must wield a superior Network Effect to crush a Network Effect.

There is only D&D. There is only WOW. There is only Magic. There is only Warhammer. There is only Windows (sorry Linux and Mac guys; if you really were superior, you'd be the top Network Effect by now). That's where the money is, that's where the users--especially the Normies and their money--are, and that's where the Social Proof lies. You ain't neo-patroning your way out of that like you might with music, books, or comics (and even then you're outside the Normiesphere so you have no cultural impact, so you don't move the needle). EVERYTHING ELSE EITHER CEASES OPERATIONS OR GOES NON-COMMERCIAL.

This is what justifies the Clubhouse as being superiot to the Basement or the Retail Shop for hobbyist organizing; the former is atomized and easily broken by life events and the childish stupidities this hobby is so notorious for that there's a comic about it (Knights of the Dinner Table), and Diamond just killed the latter. Cons are a no-go for all but a few, by percentage. Clubhouses, on the other hands, are a local social institution by and for hobbyists that are non-commercial in nature- and Clubhouses are where the hobby will survive and thrive, not the corporate Walled Gardens, again due to superior Network Effects.

The Business: Hasbro Gets Sued By Shareholders

Pat reports what we want for G-Dubs next.

This is some Mammon Mob fuckery, but it exists because of the damage that the Death Cult did.

I fully expect this suit to fix nothing. There will be a settlement, no blame will be taken, some chairs get shuffled, and--at best--the Death Cultists get purged while the Mammon Mobsters remain and entrench. There just isn't any external party, or collection of parties, other than (maybe) Games Workshop able to apply the leverage required to get any changes worth a damn.

The end result is that Conventional Play just loses differently. The collapse can't be stopped; WOTC can't be killed from inside, and it's going to take more than a shareholder lawsuit against Hasbro to kill it from without, so The Only Game That Matters (and its Network Effect) ain't going anywhere. Get in the Walled Garden, or seek admission to the Clubhouse. Otherwise all you're going to do is quit by 2030 because Conventional Play won't be able to justify itself; those left will lose to superior media that does Conventional Play better.

The Business: Vidya Bosses Cutting Dead Weight Is Good

Vidya's shedding dead weight. Death Cultists mad.

There are consequences to turning a popular entertainment medium into an obvious propaganda front.

The usual retort is that these Commies have ties to the Money Printer, but that just got shut off.

The result is that the Usual Suspects have to actually generate profit now to stay afloat, which runs right into Death Cult dogma and runs it over with the certainly of an avalanche. These people in C-Suite, caught between the Death Cult and the Mammon Mob, are forced to side with the latter to save their own asses and that's what was done. Alas, the Death Culists within did not go quietly; they leaked like a siv to their Fellow Travelers in the media, which is why the scandals kept getting out.

Yes, this is Red On Red violence.

We'll see this again with tomorrow's post, where it's already gone from slinging hitpieces to lawsuits.

The Culture: The Drakonheim Post-Mortem Stream

Dunder did another After Action Report this past week.

These guys did this with Current Edition.

If you want to read the Substack article going into this at length, go here.

Have something to take notes on hand. You're going to learn from this.

The Culture: Uncle Kevin Talks With The Pundit About Erick Wujcik

Last weekend the Pundit got Uncle Kevin on to talk about (among other things) the late Erick Wujcik.

Wujick's the man behind non-D&D games that still command respect. The most notable is Amber Diceless, which remains the only diceless game worth bothering with.

He's also the man behind Palladium's first big licensed product: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles & Other Strangeness (today, despite the recent anniversary offering, is officially labeled as After The Bomb), which (along with the first Robotech product run) was allowed Palladium to grow to the point where RIFTS became possible- and so many rules and procedures developed for those games got into RIFTS (including Bio-E; see Lemuria).

This is worth the time for the historical context alone, and Pundit's got a certain knack for being a podcast host so he has an option should his PDF Merchant hustle dry up.

The Culture: Tabletop Has a Fanfiction Problem

I am not at all surprised to hear about this.

Players should never be coddled. The game has death on the table. Shit happens. Their preferences are irrelevant. You play the game as it is, not how you wish it was.

This Tourist just wants Fanfiction. What they want is the emotional satisfaction that Fanfiction provides.

That is not what this hobby offers, and whomever keeps saying otherwise is committing fraud.

There is no place for "emotional satisfaction" here. This is a Wargaming medium; we're here to fight and win wars. We are not here for your Theater Kid bullshit.

The Culture: The Random Table Is Back

Double-dose of Dunder this week.

This is The Return Of The Panel.

Lots of talk about what they did, how they did it, and more over two hours.

Throw this on, take notes, learn how to run things.