The Business: Network Effects Proven By Science

Josh focuses on MMOs. Everything he did here applies to Tabletop games.

Also, this is a far more honest and ethical approach than most academic works- including those done in government think tanks.

While Josh tries to say "Play what makes you happy" at the end, he knew as he said it that it wasn't true- and it was on his face. (Go ahead, go look at it; he knows he's bullshitting.)

There is a Master (WOW) and an Apprentice (FF14), and they are contending to see Who Is The Master. Everyone else is a an also-ran that does not matter. Yes, even EVE Online.

People value playing with (or around) others over "fun". That's why WOW and FF14 are Master and Apprentice, and each is attempting to convince the same audience that they do what the audience wants better.

You won't see another MMORPG become a contender without figuring out what both of these games gets right, what they get wrong, fix the latter and sell it to that same audience. Furthermore, the only reason this state of affairs exists is because the company owning the Master screwed the pooche so hard with Shadowlands that is caused a notorious mass exodus of users to FF14 and Square Enix more or less successfully capitalized on that fuckup. That's why WOW did its abrupt turn with Dragonflight and going forward have tried to keep that going- to notable success. (That, and it successfully set up "The WOW Bubble", which also helped Blizzard a lot.)

As WOW is to MMOs, D&D is to Tabletop.

The problem? There is no Apprentice.

What Apprentice does Current Edition face? Pathfinder fucked itself. ACKS doesn't have that critical mass yet. No other retroclone ever came close, and no not-D&D did either. (Yes, Uncle Kevin, that includes yours.) Current Edition's only competition is itself, in the form of Past Editions that had critical mass popularity: 1st, 2nd, 3rd. If not for TSR and WOTC missteps, no one would know or care about anything else ever.

The proof that I am correct is in the attitude of Wizards of the Coast towards Tabletop: utter disdain and disrespect. WOTC doesn't see Tabletop as competition, but instead as unruly supports that need to be tard-wrangled from time to time to keep in line. WOTC sees Vidya as competition, which is why Next Edition is Vidya and not Tabletop at all.

The only other alternative is to go outside the commercial publishing business paradigm entirely. That's what the Clubhouse is about: a return to non-commercial hobbyism.

The Business: Games, Guns, & Grokking It (Network Effects)

Recently, the patents that the Glock corporation had on the Generation 3 iteration of its eponymous handgun design expired. This immediately lead to an explosion, still ongoing, of clones of the Gen 3 Glock. Palmetto State Armory has the Dagger. The Turks got into the act thereafter, and just this past week (in time for the 2025 SHOT Show in Las Vegas next month) Ruger announced its own clone in collaboration with Aftermarket Parts King, Magpul.

As I said the other day, "Does it take Glock magazines?" is a tell of dominance in a market niche for a reason. Glock's handgun design is so dominant, and so widely supported, that it set the standard for what a semi-automatic handgun should be; "I gots me a Glock" is said in the same way (and by the same people) that use "Coke" to mean any soft drink and clueless Boomers say "Nintendo" to mean any home videogame console.

While there are plenty of handguns out there, from many manufacturers, some of which are well-known and some of which are clearly superior, none of them have ever displaced the Glock. All they did was advertise for it instead.

Yes, including legacy (pre-Glock) models. Yes, Boomer, that includes Muh Two World Wars and Muh Gun That Won The West.

We saw the same thing happen when the patents on the Armalite-15 Rifle expired and now everyone and their uncle shleps an AR-15 or parts therefore; exact same phenomenon is at work, for the same reasons. Palmetto State bundles their clones together into a very good package.

What happened 25 years ago in tabletop gaming?

"Does it take Glock magazines?", in gaming terms, is "Does it play like D&D?" and in the year 2000 the same effect as letting patents expire happened to D&D.

The result was the same: an explosion of clones and near-alikes, meant to plug into the stupidly-vast aftermarket accessories made for the dominant actor in the market. Several of them are still around, and some no longer in print are still in demand anyway (e.g. Mongoose's Conan game), while many are like stupid trash-tier pew-pews that deserve to be forgotten because they sucked ass.

This was the first clear manifestation that what Ryan Dancey argued when presenting the Open Gaming License and the d20 System Trademark License was correct: the gaming market, like the telephone market, is a market niche whose value is derived entirely from establishing and maintaining the largest network of users- and that means that D&D Is The Only Game That Matters. (Sorry Dark Eye and Dragon Warriors fans.)

The only party that could fuck this up was whomever owned D&D; so long as management wasn't pants-on-head retarded, owning D&D is as close to guaranteed success as it gets.

Previously that was TSR. Currently (and for 25 years now) it's Wizards of the Coast. Both owners have done just that more than once, each, and it has been due to management being pants-on-head retarded while eating glue in Costco-sized quantities.

Each time turned out badly for everyone in the long run despite short-term benefits and effects because none of the would-be competitors are good enough at business to figure out how to usurp D&D and become The Only Game That Matters.

Meanwhile, more and more accrued defects in the game--in the hobby--have allowed The Only Competition That Matters (i.e. competing networks, meaning Vidya) to do exactly what I've said you have to do to beat D&D: find out what The Most Valued Customers want, but D&D's owners aren't giving to them, make it and sell it to them. That's how, and why, Vidya has eaten Tabletop's lunch for decades now.

That is also why Wizards of the Coast's management wants to quit Tabletop for Vidya: Vidya has proven itself to be the better medium for the business that WOTC (and Vidya) offers to the target audience (i.e. it's superior for Conventional Play across the board).

All you "competitors" thinking that you still have a place in this market once The Only Publisher That Matters leaves are going to find out when the user network you depend upon for your business and your livelihood ejects you and all those customers that you think are loyal to you and not to the dominant actor--to that Brand--aren't and shiv you in the ribs without a second thought.

Just like all the folks now making Glock clones are bowing to the reality that Gunnies Want Glocks, you're going to bow to the reality that Gamers Want D&D or you won't be here much longer.

That's how Network Effects work for those unwilling or unable--and that's you, all of you--to beat the Master to become the Master. You will serve or you will die, and as you choke on your pride about how this goes down I'll be smugfacing over here.

Meanwhile, I'm building the alternative to your failing commercial operations because you guys are all fucked and I want the hobby to live despite you.

The Culture: Victory For BROZER! Victory For The BROSR!

"It'll never catch on!"

Fellow hobbyists! Gamers! Conquerers of Worlds Fantastic! I am pleased to report:

Wow. Brozer has moved nearly 1000 units! pic.twitter.com/RIoHr47Sec

— Cirsova MAGAzine of Thrilling Adventure (@cirsova) December 20, 2024

You can get your copy here. It's free. (Or at cost at Amazon.)

People are getting it. People are reading it. People are studying it, applying it, using it, and producing the results promised by it.

And others are putting all their receipts together into a single big document to post for all to read. Receipts matter; they are irrefuable proof that the Bros are right.

This year the Bros revived Real D&D, with Braunstein being the final piece to put back into place. Next year we revive the Clubhouse, the institution that makes all of it work.

The Business: The Receipts Keep Coming (On Network Effects)

Network Effects In Action: The Livestream.

They get to the point at 23 minutes in, with the key point at 28 and change: nothing the New Darlings are doing disrupt The Only Game That Matters. The designers confess that they aren't even trying.

As I said yesterday, all "competition" advertises for the dominant player in the niche due to its Network Effect power. Wizards of the Coast knows where it is, which is why they are confident that Nothing Ever Happens and treat the hobby like petulant children.

And people can (and do, I bet) hate Derik for saying so but he's got the receipts. WOTC does this because they are right. Most in the hobby do act like petulant children; they throw tantrums, flounce off like a drama queen, and then come slinking back as soon as they aren't getting to play anything because everyone else doesn't want to switch away from the dominant game in the market niche.

Which means that the stream's transition to Critical Role and its aim to switch off The Only Game That Matters is relevant; audience dropped off hard, harder for Not D&D stuff, and that's from people who are not hobbyists- the folks who watch, but don't play. CR is not yet bigger than The Only Game That Matters because CR does not yet know what the most valued customers for WOTC want that WOTC is not giving to them.

If you do RPG content on YouTube, you feel the Network Effect in a visceral way. The Professor talked about this earlier this year.

Which means that going against that grain takes serious effort, technical magic, or both; most (like the Professor) blend the two or try to confuse the system into boosting it anyway to varying degrees of success- and those that do are other D&D editions far more often than not, or are videos that explicitly compare (X) to D&D.

Network Effects are far more powerful than naysayers think because they don't see past the point of contact; they don't see Second and Third Order effects, and media talking about the dominant party in a niche is one or two degree removes from the party itself. YouTube, besides being a Dominant Network in itself, amplifies the Network Effect of others! You want to pay the bills talking about Fantastic Adventure Games? You talk about The Only Game That Matters. How can vary, and it can vary quite a big, but so long as you do the YT bot rewards you with the ability to pay your bills. This is why you see plenty of WOW and FF14 channels, but sweet F-all about Meridian 59, and so on.

Until you grok what Network Effects are and how they work, you cannot compete and win; all you do is end up captured, neutralized, and assimilated into the system that keep the Master in power. Y'know, like we saw depicted in a certain well-known movie franchise 25 years ago.

You don't defeat the Master without surpassing the Master. The only other viable option is to Go Somewhere Else and Do Something Else (i.e. leave the Network entirely); this is what Traveller, Call of Cthulhu, and HERO (Champions) did to become the D&D of their niche- and, after a fashion, how RIFTS became what it is as no one does what it does better.

You want to win, to beat the Master? You need to find out what the Master is not doing that the audience wants. Then you have to execute better than the Master across the board and keep that up for years on end, first becoming the Apprentice and then challenging to become the Master. The rest is details.

Commercial or non-commercial, the process is the same- only the route to getting there is different, and the non-commercial route gives you superior options for staying on top once you win.

The Business: When The Discourse Proves The Point For Me (On Network Effects)

(Foreward: Let me state here that I am sympathetic to the Original Poster's point. I am not using it to argue with the OP; I am using it to demonstrate why Network Effects matter, and thus those who think otherwise are wrong.

Behold, Network Effects in action!

Like yeah but ain't no one remember those games no more

— Ihatemyjob (@slippinslidddde) December 17, 2024

This is the Second Order consequences of Network Effects.

The OP's claim is correct--technically--in that Meshi is a comedy derived from Wizardry, albeit at some remove, but the retort is the killshot: Wizardry is derivative of The Only Game That Matters.

So is Dragon Quest, the Final Fantasy franchise, Ultima (and its sequels), and so on.

The fact that Square Enix made their tabletop adaptation of FF14 as a Current Edition knockoff just adds to the evidence pile supporting Network Effects' validity, as if D&D being The Only Game That Matters for the entirety of the history of the Tabletop Fantasy Adventure Game hobby's existence wasn't enough.

Back around 2000, when Ryan Dancey originally explained Network Effects to people at RPG Net and elsewhere, using language much like I've posted here previously, one of the claims he made is that every competing product just ends up advertising the dominant player in the network and feeding into it.

Look above. D&D's Network Effect is so strong that VIDEOGAMES SEVERAL DEGREES REMOVED advertise for it!

This is why the only competition FOR D&D IS D&D- only its past editions and knockoffs are viable competition. Every other notable title is the D&D of its not-Fantasy niche, and all of them bow to The Only Game That Matters in turn. All of them, without exception, advertise for D&D. The same is true of every other market segment where Network Effects are primary; every competing MMO advertises for World of Warcraft, every competing tabletop wargame advertising for Warhammer, every competing CCG advertises for Magic (yes, including the all-digital ones like Hearthstone), every PC advertises for Microsoft, and every handgun or carbine advertises for Glock.

How? By being the standard against which everything else is measured. When you are the dominant player with the biggest network, you define what Is and Is Not for that segment, and would-be competitors find out the hard way just how strong that power of definition is when they try to square up against the Big Man.

Ah, I see a SMRT Boi in the back. You're asking how WOW beat EverQuest, right?

Okay, here's the answer: "We knew what EQ's most valuable customers wanted better than the company did, so we made the game that EQ's devs refused to make and sold it to them."

Compare Vanilla WOW--you can do that right now; go open a BattleNet account, download and install the BNet launcher, open up a WOW account, pay a month's sub fee, DL and install the Vanille Classic client, and log on--to EQ (it too is still online). You don't have to rely on videos or livestreams; you can experience the difference yourself.

That's how you overtake D&D: you have to deliver what the most valuable customers want better than the existing dominant player. Given Wizards of the Coast's position, that is not easy or cheap to do as a commercial operation; you need to not only have a product that does D&D better than Official D&D, but you need to get it out there and smear it into the faces of Normies near and far and show them how much more fun it is than what WOTC offers. It would help if you sold a complete turnkey product with no need for Endless Slop and instead focused your support on Social Media material teaching them how to use and master what you sold to them.

"But isn't that what the PDF merchants do?"

That's what they claim. Deeds, far more often than not, do not match words. If they did they'd be the Apprendice to WOTC's Master, and even then they still end up advertising WOTC's Official D&D because they aren't good enough. The way forward is to be so much better that WOTC (and everyone else) ends up advertising your product instead; you must become so superior that you become the standard against which all else is measured and thus defines what Is and Is Not.

"How will I know that happened?"

When you hear people stop asking the gaming equivalent of "Does it take Glock magazines?" and start asking "Does it take (Your) magazines?"

If you cannot achieve this effect, then you don't know what the target audience wants out of WOTC that WOTC is not giving to them. Until you do, you will fail; once you do, you will succeed with sufficient energy and effort put behind getting it out there and talked about- you still have to promote it.

That's why Network Effects are the thing that matters, and why even at some remove they do so much for you when you are the dominant actor- when you are the Master.

And that, returning to the top, is why the OP is technically correct and yet still wrong. Meshi is derived from D&D, and its existence (like Lodoss War, Grancrest Senki, and many others) advertise for it purely by being close enough for comparison. That is the power of Network Effects in action, and thus why it's a waste of time to be neither the Master nor the Apprentice; if you come at the king, you had better not miss.

One Week Before The Day Arrives (A Neighborly Post)

Christmas Eve is one week from day, and the day after is Christmas Day. (And the day after is Boxing Day.)

This is your reminder to get your Christmas shopping done so it's there in time for the day itself for your family and friends. Various sales online are either ongoing, or will be shortly; GOG has theirs on down, Steam starts on the 19th, and Amazon rotates through what is on sale regularly. Your Favorite Publisher's direct sale store may have something going (Palladium's Grab Bag is said to stop on the 24th, but that may be extended; it has before.)

My recommendations are here if you missed them.

And, for those of you worried about Your Favorite Things From Japan being defiled by Death Cultists, here's your go-ahead to let Captain Harlock get them for you.

So make certain you've got your order of KFC secured, and enjoy the holidays.

Merry Christmas, everyone! One last gift for you all: Vintage Pulps Online Store. Originals, and it shows.

The Business: Lore Proves A Lack Of Commercial Viability

Another Jeffro observation:

This follows from another well-known complaint about Conventional Play: No one gives a shit about your fucking lore.

Lore creation by publishers, especially by people paid via Work For Hire contracts, exists solely to build up the property as a Brand for non-hobbyists to consume. As with what Jeffro said about a few related topics:

Players really don't care about your big brain house rules. They already don't want to listen to you talk about your campaign updates. They definitely don't want to hear about your "lore". House rules? Even less so.

The BEST source of campaign information of ANY kind are OTHER PLAYERS recounting their experiences or else mentoring each other on sound tactics and strategies. Ideally, the referee should be the most boring person at the table.

Back to the Lore matter: the purpose for Lore, for a publisher, is to develop a Brand that is better suited to a Narrative medium: film, television, comics, novels. Not games. A competent publisher, in developing such a body of lore, does so with the aim of creating a Series Bible for the Brand that hired guns and corporate partners will adhere to when doing work for the Brand. (Note: There are no such publishers in the hobby. NONE!)

Lore can be consumed without participating in the game that it came from, which is the point of its existence from a commercial perspective. The ongoing success of lore channels for BattleTech and 40K and Fantasy show this in action, and thus become unpaid Brand Ambassadors doing marketing for the Brand.

Over time this non-gaming audience will grow to eclipse the hobbyist audience and the publishing operation will pivot operations to cater to this new audience over the original, eventually to discard it entirely as a legacy element that impedes the Brand-focused business that the publisher has become.

Games Workshop is already well down this path, as is Wizards of the Coast, and a lot of corporate business media pushes the drive to depreciate the original core audiences in favor of the more numerous non-gaming one attracted by the Brand-focused material that lore publication cannot help but to attract.

If you are a commercial operation in the hobby, you have no reason to not go down the route of writing reams of lore because this effect is a desirable consequence- assuming, again, that you are a competent operation. A mature form of this business has no in-house ludological capacity or acumen at all; that's all licensed out to corporate partners- just look at Hello Kitty as a successful example.

(This also puts the lie that Tabletop gaming is itself commercially viable; if you have to spin off subsidiary product pure to use as leverage into a different medium and business where the actual money lies, you are not commercially viable.)

An honest hobby publication, operating on a non-commercial basis, has no need to do anything but to produce a competent technical manual for the hobbyist game and then leave well enough alone. The hobbyists, as end-users, will take that turnkey product and make their own content to use with it through playing the game as the manuals command them to do. There is no need to publish lore, including setting material; let the users do that themselves, for they shall do better than you ever could.

That is what AD&D1e and several other classic Fantastic Adventure Games allow; that they are not exactly just a set of technical manuals is a flaw put into the design due to commercial incentives. The rest are lobotomized crippleware meant to enable Endless Product Slop, through which they can also enable Endless Lore Publishing and thus turn the product into a Brand that becomes the road to where the money is (and thus the path to selling out).

This needs to stop for the good of the hobby. Destroy the slop and the lore. Replace it with teaching, training, and building up new hobbyists; the Clubhouse is the Dojo.